Nigeria has exited recession as the economy recorded its first growth in three quarters due to the relaxation of the movement restrictions across the nation.
This is according to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report for Q4 and full-year 2020 released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday.
Nigeria’s GDP grew by 0.11%(year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing the first positive quarterly growth in the last three quarters.
Although the Q4 2020 growth rate was lower than the growth rate recorded the previous year by –2.44% points, it was higher by 3.74% points compared to Q3 2020.
Nigeria officially entered a recession as the GDP contracted by -3.62% (year-on-year) in real terms in Q3 2020 (July to September 2020), the second consecutive quarterly GDP decline and the second recession in five years.
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Overall, in 2020, the annual growth of real GDP was estimated at –1.92%, a decline of –4.20% points when compared to the 2.27% recorded in 2019.
In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N43,564,006.29 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 which recorded a GDP aggregate of N39,577,340.04 million, representing a year on year nominal growth rate of 10.07%.
In Q4 2020 oil sector contributed 5.87% of the GDP while the non-oil sector contributed 94.13% of the GDP.
In 2020 full year, on average the oil sector contributed 8.16% of the GDP while the non-oil sector contributed 91.84%.
Contribution to real GDP by sectors in 2020 full year
- Agriculture: 26.21% (25.16% in 2019)
- Industry: 21.36% (22.25% in 2019)
- Services: 52.44% (52.6% in 2019)
The real growth of the oil sector was –19.76% (year-on-year) in Q4 2020 indicating a decrease by –26.12% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.
For 2020, the oil sector grew at –8.89% compared to 4.59% in 2019. The oil sector contributed 5.87% to total real GDP in Q4 2020, down from the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.32% and 8.73% respectively.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, average daily oil production of 1.56 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded.
The non-oil sector grew by 1.69% in real terms in Q4 2020, slower than the 2.26% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019, but better than the –2.51% growth rate recorded in the preceding quarter. For the full year of 2020 however, the non-oil sector grew –1.25% compared to 2.06% in 2019. Growth in the sector was driven by Information and Communication (Telecommunications & Broadcasting).
The manufacturing sector contributed 8.60% to real GDP in Q4 2020, lower than the 8.74% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 8.93% recorded in the third quarter of 2020. However, its annual contribution stood at 8.99% in 2020.
The Manufacturing sector is comprised of thirteen activities: Oil Refining; Cement; Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel, and Footwear; Wood and Wood Products; Pulp Paper and Paper products; Chemical and Pharmaceutical products; Non-metallic Products, Plastic and Rubber products; Electrical and Electronic, Basic Metal and Iron and Steel; Motor Vehicles and Assembly; and Other Manufacturing.
Ifunanya Ikueze is an Engineer, Safety Professional, Writer, Investor, Entrepreneur and Educator.