Investogist - Forex Forecast for the week; 6th July

EURUSD

EURUSD closed above 1.1230 resistance on Monday and buyers defended the support through the week.

There is also a tight descending channel within the larger ascending channel on the daily time frame, as a matter of fact buyers were rejected on Thursday. There is also a strong zone of support between 1.120 and 1.1230.

The channel is clearer on the hour time frame. Temporary resistance at 1.120 is a must break for sellers if we are going to see the EURUSD move lower towards 1.1150 and 1.1050 confluence of channel and horizontal support . We might see EURUSD move towards the larger channel support at 1.1050 in the coming days.

However, a close above the smaller channel will expose 1.13400 and large channel resistance

Fig 1; EURUSD daily time frame

Fig2; EURUSD four hour time frame

GBPUSD

GBPUSD played out as we anticipated it would last week; not only were sellers able to reach 1.2252 channel support, buyers also defended it as the cable bounced off nicely on a retest and broke through 1.2450 resistance and buyers are held above it.

However, I must state that Thursday’s price action is somehow tricky having formed a pin bar. This pin bar however in my opinion is not tradable, simply because it closed above not below 1.2450 support level.

One need to be careful here, as long as price stays above 1.2450 buyers will be in control also if buyers do not clear temporary resistance of 1.2530, buyers will struggle.

My approach is simple if buyers close above 1.2530 that will expose 1.2760, followed by channel top 1.2930.

Alternatively if sellers close below 1.2450 support that will expose channel support once again.

Fig3; GBPUSD daily time frame.

GBPJPY

GBPJPY currently confirmed an ascending channel on Tuesday as it bounced off 131.90. GBPJPY is at 134.164 above 133.70 resistance/support level thus exposing 135.35 and 137.33 followed by 141.00 and the channel resistance 143.00. Buyers need to clear 135.35 resistance, 135.35 played a critical role in April, May and June. A break of this level will give more momentum to the buyers.

Alternatively, if sellers break the channel support 132.410 and close below it that will expose 129.390, 127.030 and 123.940

Fig 4; GBPJPY daily time frame

NZDUSD

NZDUSD confirmed a false break on monthly time frame. The multiyear wedge pattern that broke down in March, is what am talking about. We discussed this in previous forecast. This is important to keep in mind as it will enable us to understand that we want to be more of buyers here than sellers.

On the daily time frame the kiwi is moving to retest the multiyear wedge resistance and horizontal level at 0.6570, a close above it will expose 0.6720 followed by 0.6940.

Fig5; NZDUSD daily time frame