We discussed the EURUSD in my last forecast that centered on the small descending channel, which had formed inside an ascending channel, however the descending channel turned out to be a continuation bull flag as buyers broke out on Monday the 6th of July.
1.13498/50 acted as resistance until a break on Tuesday the 14th of July and Friday broke through 1.14212 and closed above it. Given the bull flag and confirmed break of 1.13498, I think the EUR is heading for the multiyear wedge top at 1.16017 confluence of resistance. On the way up we have 1.15000/68 resistance.
I want to state that Fridays close above 1.420/1.4212 was really marginal and I will still take 1.13498/50 as maintain support as we go into a new week.
Alternatively a close back below 1.13498/50 will expose 1.12319/30 followed by the flag top at 1.11500
EURUSD daily time frame
NZDUSD has featured several times in this forecast in the past weeks. The last forecast centered on the confirmed false break of the multiyear wedge we have been discussing since May.
Two weeks ago I highlighted 0.6550 resistance which is the top of the wedge hinting at the possibility of a break and a higher move for NZDUSD. As we can see from the chart below 0.6550 has served as support since breaking out on 8th July. NZDUSD buyers are being resisted by 0.65810 horizontal level.
This also happens to be the top of a range band that the NZDUSD happens to be in since June. This consolidation phase needs to end if we are going to see any kind of momentum for this pair.
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A break above 0.65810 will expos 0.67391/0.6740 followed by 0.69393/0.6940 alternatively a sell signal from 0.65810 will expose 0.64028.
NZDUSD daily time frame
EURGBP is currently squeezed inside a wedge pattern on the daily time frame. The bottom trend line of the wedge which broke down last week turned out to be a false break, since EURGBP closed back inside the wedge on Tuesday however, Friday could not close above the top of the wedge.
If EURGBP closes below the bottom wedge again in the week that will mean the market is no longer respecting the trend line. However, given the recent performance of the EUR, I am looking more to the top. Resistance comes in at 0.9100/0.9150 this is an area that buyers must clear to expose 0.93014 and 0.95161.
Alternatively, a close below 0.90550/0.9020 will expose 0.88613 followed buy 0.86783.
All metals have been on a tear in the past weeks. Gold and silver always tend to move in the same trend but not at the same rate.
Silver confirmed a break from a wedge on the 30th of June at $18 mark and rallied to 19.013, it has since broken through and 19.00/19.013 has served as support. However, there appears to be one obstacle keeping the buyers in check. This is a trend line from 2016, the trend line resistance at 19.300/19.310 needs to break for buyers to reach 21.000. If we get a confirmed break of the resistance, there will be nothing in the way of buyers to reach 21.00. Alternatively, if we get a close below 19.00 that will expose 18.00 support.
XAGUSD Daily time
The aussie has been trending higher since the March sell off ended and does not look like it is letting off.
AUDJPY has been pushing at resistance 74.814 on 16th May and consistently through July so far. A similar scenario played out on AUDCAD. Currently, AUDJPY is also respecting a trend line dating from April 2nd and is also range bound between 73.105 and 74.874, it is also in a terminal structure between 74.874 and the trend line.
Now, if AUDJPY breaks above 74.874 that will expose 76.468 followed by 77.809. Alternatively a break below the trend line will expose 73.105 and 71.800
AUDJPY daily time frame