EURUSD finally broke out of the upward sloping flag on the daily time frame. In the previous forecast, I highlighted the importance of this pattern. In previous forex forecast analysis, I stated that this breakout and any attempt to retest 1.1500 support (1.1500 is the top of the multiyear wedge that broke in July) will produce a monthly bearish engulfing bar.
EURUSD is currently near 1.1600 support, a daily close below it will expose 1.1500. 1.1500 might attract buyers as it is a critical support for sellers to break to send EURSD lower.
However, EURUSD is in a long-term downtrend from 2007 and might have formed a new lower high, unless buyers take out of September’s candle. On a monthly basis, we might see the pair head for lower levels.
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EURUSD daily time frame
EURUSD monthly time frame
GBPUSD continues to look weak after breaking several levels rising wedge, trend line, and most recently 1.280 support level. Buyers retested the 1.280 as resistance and were rejected on Friday. It is important to note that there is a bearish engulfing month on the monthly time frame. The measured objective of the rising wedge is around 1.185.
The bearish engulfing month hints at further weakness towards 1.200.
A close below 1.2640 will expose 1.2450 followed by 1.2200.
Alternatively, a close 1.2799/1.280 will re-expose 1.2980 followed by trend line resistance.
GBPUSD daily time frame
GBPNZD bounced off the channel support we discussed last week. GBPNZD formed a bullish engulfing bar on the critical channel support as buyers reclaimed 1.939/1.940 on Thursday. Friday’s price action formed a pin bar on the daily time frame and the week ended with a bullish engulfing bar.
As long as GBPNZD stays above 1.940, a move higher is on the books. On the way up, resistance includes 1.200, 2.0533, 2.103, and the channel resistance. A break below 1.940 will expose the channel support with a close below it exposing 1.8927, 1.82799, 1.745.
GBPNZD daily time frame
GBPNZD weekly time frame
NZDUSD finally broke out of the rising wedge we have been tracking for two weeks. This break occurred on Tuesday; the price hovered above support 0.650 as the week ended.
The pair is poised to move lower, in my opinion, a close below 0.650 will expose 0.6450, 0.6200. 0.6200 is a support for the left shoulder of a potential inverse head and shoulders. More on this next week if we get a close below 0.6400.
Alternatively, a close above the wedge bottom now resistance will negate this bearish outlook.
NZDUSD daily time frame