After the second set of group matches, below are permutations on who could qualify and who might head home as calculated by UEFA.
Group A
Italy are through and will top the group if they avoid defeat.
Wales will be confirmed in the top two with a draw or if Switzerland fail to beat Turkey.
Switzerland can finish in the top two if they win and Wales lose – the teams will then be separated on goal difference – but will be eliminated if they lose.
Turkey cannot finish in the top two and must beat Switzerland to come third in the group.
Group B
Belgium are through and will top the group with a draw.
Russia will be through with a win, or a draw if Finland fails to beat Belgium.
Finland will be through with a win, or a draw if Russia loses to Denmark.
Denmark can finish second if they beat Russia and Finland lose against Belgium, but it will all depend on the goals scored in these two matches.
If Belgium, Russia and Finland all finish on 6 points (ahead of Denmark on 0), they will be split on goal difference from matches between the three teams though all will advance at least as a best third-placed team.
In that scenario, if Finland beat Belgium by one or two goals, and Russia win, the order will be: 1 Belgium, 2 Finland, 3 Russia.
If Finland beat Belgium by between three and five goals, and Russia win, the order will be 1 Finland, 2 Belgium, 3 Russia.
If Finland beat Belgium by six goals or more, and Russia win, the order will be 1 Finland, 2 Russia, 2 Belgium.
If Denmark, Russia and Finland all finish on 3 points (behind Belgium on 9), they will be split on goal difference from matches between the three teams. The second-placed team behind Belgium would be through and the third-placed team could still advance depending on the final record of third-placed teams in other groups.
In that scenario, if Denmark beat Russia 1-0, and Finland lose, the teams would be equal on all three-way scenarios and would be split on overall goal difference then overall goals scored, then number of wins (which in this case would be equal), then disciplinary points, then European Qualifiers rankings (in which Russia are 12th, Denmark 15th and Finland 20th). Disciplinary points then European Qualifiers rankings would be used specifically if Denmark won 1-0 and Finland lost 2-1 (Denmark and Finland would be equal on overall goal difference, goals scored and number of wins), or if Denmark won 1-0 and Finland lost 3-0 (Russia and Finland would be equal on overall goal difference, goals scored and number of wins).
If Denmark beat Russia by a one-goal margin other than 1-0, and Finland lose, the order will be 2 Denmark, 3 Russia, 4 Finland.
If Denmark beat Russia by two goals or more, and Finland lose, the order will be 2 Denmark, 3 Finland, 4 Russia.
Group C
Netherlands are through as group winners.
Ukraine will finish second with a win or draw.
Austria must beat Ukraine to finish second.
North Macedonia cannot finish in the top three.
Group D
Czech Republic will go through as group winners if they avoid defeat against England. They will finish second if they lose and Scotland beat Croatia. They will only finish third if they lose and Croatia win by enough to overtake them on overall goal difference.
England will go through if they draw or if Scotland do not win, and will finish top if they beat Czech Republic. They will only finish third if they lose and Scotland win by enough to overtake them on overall goal difference.
Croatia must win to stay in contention to be at least a best third-placed team, though they can still overtake Czech Republic for second place on overall goal difference.
Scotland must win to finish at least third, and can still overtake England for second place on overall goal difference.
Group E
Sweden will go through if they avoid defeat against Poland. If Sweden lose and the other game is drawn, Sweden, Slovakia and Poland will be split for first to third place on results between the three teams. If Sweden lose, they finish third.
Slovakia will go through if they beat Spain, or if they draw and Sweden avoid defeat.
Spain will go through if they beat Slovakia. If they draw they will finish third unless Poland win.
Poland will go through in second place if they win and the other game is not drawn.
If Slovakia, Sweden and Poland all finish on 4 points (ahead of Spain on 3), they will be split on goal difference from matches between the three teams (the first two teams would be through, the third-placed team could also advance depending on the record of third-placed teams in other groups).
In that scenario, if Poland beat Sweden 1-0, and Slovakia draw, the order will be: 1 Slovakia, 2 Poland, 3 Sweden (be above Sweden on goal difference and to split the two their direct result, a Slovakia win, would apply).
If Poland beat Sweden 2-1, and Slovakia draw, the order will be: 1 Poland, 2 Sweden, 3 Slovakia (Sweden and Slovakia would be behind Poland on goal difference and to split the two their direct result, a Sweden win, would apply).
If Poland beat Sweden by any other one-goal margin, and Slovakia draw, the order will be: 1 Poland, 2 Sweden, 3 Slovakia.
If Poland beat Sweden by two goals or more, and Slovakia draw, the order will be: 1 Poland, 2 Slovakia, 3 Sweden.
Group F
France will go through if they avoid defeat against Portugal or if the other game is drawn. They will finish first if they win, or if they draw and Germany do not beat Hungary. If France lose and Hungary win, second place will be decided on overall goal difference.
Germany will go through if they win, or if they draw and France do not lose. Germany will finish first if they win and France do not. Germany will finish third if they draw and France lose, or if both Germany and Portugal lose.
Portugal will go through if they win, or if they draw and Germany lose. Portugal will finish first if they win and Germany do not. Portugal will finish fourth if they lose and Germany also lose.
Hungary will go through in second place if they win and Portugal lose. If they win and France lose, second place will be decided on overall goal difference. Hungary will finish third if they win and the other game is drawn.
How ties are broken within groups
If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points on completion of the final tournament group stage, the following criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine their rankings:
- higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question
- superior goal difference resulting from the matches played among the teams in question
- higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question
- if, after having applied criteria a) to c), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to i) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal
- superior goal difference in all group matches
- higher number of goals scored in all group matches
- higher number of wins in all group matches
- lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
- position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings
If two teams which have the same number of points and the same number of goals scored and conceded play their last group match against each other and are still equal at the end of that match, their final rankings are determined by kicks from the penalty mark, provided that no other teams within the group have the same number of points on completion of all group matches.
How the four best third-placed teams are decided
With reference to article 21.03, the results of the third-placed teams are compared based on their three group stage matches, according to the following criteria:
- higher number of points
- superior goal difference
- higher number of goals scored
- higher number of wins
- lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
- position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings
Once the four best third-placed teams have been determined, article 21.05 of the regulations explains which third-placed team plays in which tie.
Azuka Edokobi is a Writer , a Farmer, a Supply Chain Expert and an Entrepreneur
