EURUSD
EURUSD has been rallying for three months now and I think this rally is not over yet despite Friday’s pullback at least technically. EURUSD broke out of the multiyear wedge on the monthly time frame. I have written about this wedge several times in the past weeks and Fridays close gave us the break we have been anticipating.
It is likely that we will get a pull back to wedge support at 1.1650, a daily close below 1.170 will be indicative that we will get that retest.
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Two things will likely happen either that buyers recover from 1.1769/70 or that sellers retest 1.1650. Key resistances from 1.1650 include 1.1900, 1.2090/1.2091 and 1.2500
On the other hand a close below the wedge top 1.1650 will negate the wedge.
Fig 1: EURUSD daily
Fig 2: EURUSD monthly time frame
GBPUSD
The pound reached the top of the channel I wrote about in the last GBPUSD forecast on Thursday however Friday ended with a pin bar at 1.3170. 1.3170 is a confluence zone of horizontal and trend line resistance. The trend line dates back to 2018, notice how the trend line intersects with horizontal level.
If the pin bar is triggered on Monday that will result in a pullback to 1.28152 there is a temporary support at 1.9870.
Alternatively, if buyers support break above 1.3170 resistance that will open the doors to 1.3340/1.33413 followed by 1.350.
Fig 3: GBPUSD daily zoom out
Fig 4: GBPUSD daily
USDJPY
USDJPY is another pair that broke out on Friday. I am talking about the multiyear wedge on the monthly time frame that I have discussed in past forecasts.
Fridays close gave us a confirmed breakout from the wedge. This break out is a marginal in my opinion meaning the price closing is too close to the wedge support now resistance 106.082.
On the daily time frame there is a bullish engulfing bar while there is bullish pin bar on the weekly time frame. I will like to state at this point that I will like to see more confirmation to “ok” this break out.
Given that USD seems to have gained some strength recovering some ground across all major pairs this could be as a result of profit taking as the week and the month came to an end. Fundamentals suggest further weakness for the USD so I take Friday’s price action with a pinch of salt.
Going into the week I will like to see a close below 104.631 before taking a short position. Key support on the way down include 101.593 and 96.206.
A close back above 104.631 will indicate strength and expose 106.90 followed by 108.018.
Fig 5: USDJPY monthly
Fig 6: USDJPY daily
XAUUSD
Gold bulls met resistance at 1980.45 after break above the previous high. Last week ended mostly in consolidation as price became bound between 1980.45 and 1941.89. A break this range will expose the next whole number being 2000.00 followed by 2100.00.
If the sellers brake below 1941.89 that will expose 1900 which is a must hold for buyers.
Fig 7: XAUUSD daily
Written by:
Chijioke Maduakor
