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    Israel and Iran agree on ceasefire – Trump

    Israel and Iran agree on ceasefire – Trump

    Breaking: Iran launches missiles at US bases in the Middle East

    Breaking: Iran launches missiles at US bases in the Middle East

    US military strikes Iran

    US military strikes Iran

    EFCC seeks transfer of Orji Uzor Kalu’s trial to Lagos

    Yahoo boys launder money for ‘politically exposed persons’ – EFCC boss

    Gombe receives N60 billion from FG to establish Agro-Livestock Industrial Zone

    Gombe receives N60 billion from FG to establish Agro-Livestock Industrial Zone

    Student Loan Act: How to apply for the loan, all you need to know

    The increased prices of driver’s licenses, number plates set to take effect

    Trump congratulates Nigeria for Banning Twitter, says more countries should do same

    Trump bans citizens of 12 countries from entering the U.S, full list

    France launches mandatory online visa appointments for travelers

    France launches mandatory online visa appointments for travelers

    Federal Government declares June 6 and 9 public holidays

    Federal Government declares June 6 and 9 public holidays

    • Nigeria
    • Africa
    • World
  • Economy
    • All
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    • Economic Data
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    UK tightens visa rules for care workers, skilled workers and students

    UK tightens visa rules for care workers, skilled workers and students

    United States scraps visa dropbox service for Nigerian applicants

    President Donald Trump cancels protection for 500,000 Haitian migrants

    Spain golden visa scheme ends as Portugal and Greece demand increases

    Spain golden visa scheme ends as Portugal and Greece demand increases

    CBN fines nine banks 150 million Naira each for failing to dispense cash

    CBN ends free ATM withdrawals for other banks’customers

    FG increases private university application fee from N5m to N25m

    FG increases private university application fee from N5m to N25m

    United States scraps visa dropbox service for Nigerian applicants

    United States scraps visa dropbox service for Nigerian applicants

    Buhari says Nigeria security and economy improved during his tenure

    Buhari says Nigeria security and economy improved during his tenure

    Air Sierra Leone commences flight operations to Lagos

    Air Sierra Leone commences flight operations to Lagos

    Nigeria renews $2 billion currency swap deal with China to boost bilateral trade

    Nigeria renews $2 billion currency swap deal with China to boost bilateral trade

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    MTN Nigeria to pay over N200 billion final dividend for 2022

    List of Dividends announced in 2025, qualification and payment dates

    Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc grows Profit after tax by 43%  in Q1 2021

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    Dangote Petroleum Refinery to begin distribution of PMS and Diesel nationwide

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    United Capital Group expands into Francophone West Africa

    List of Dividends announced in 2024, qualification and payment dates

    Cornerstone Insurance Plc to pay 27 kobo final dividend for 2024 FY

    Legend Internet Plc reports N32.9 million profit for Q1 2025

    Legend Internet Plc reports N32.9 million profit for Q1 2025

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    Banking stocks plunge after CBN suspends banks under regulatory forbearance from paying dividends

    ELECTION: Cutix Plc reschedules Board Meeting

    Weekly Report: Nigerian Exchange sees mixed performance as Cutix Plc emerge top gainer

    Again DMO offers N360 billion FGN bond for February

    DMO offers N300 billion FGN bond for auction in May

    NGX Daily Equities Market Report: Market gains for third consecutive days

    CSCS Plc explores listing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX)

    NGX Daily Equities Market Report: Market gains for third consecutive days

    NGX delists Flour Mills shares, lists additional NB and Jaiz Bank shares

    Bitcoin soars above $21,000 as U.S. dollar sags

    BITCOIN hits $103,000 for the first time

    Bitcoin (BTC) rises above US$90,000 records a new all time high

    Bitcoin (BTC) rises above US$90,000 records a new all time high

    Bitcoin crosses US$60K, approaches All-Time High

    Bitcoin (BTC) rises above US$80,000

    Alhaji Dahiru Mangal sold his 1.96bn Oando Shares for N11.81bn

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    How Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S Presidential Election

    Rovina Medical Diagnostic Services offers free Breast and Prostrate cancer scans

    Rovina Medical Diagnostic Services offers free Breast and Prostrate cancer scans

    Security features of the new naira notes revealed by the CBN

    New hope for Naira fixed income savers?

    The Nigerian Stock Market: Has Tinubu’s Election impacted the Market Negatively?

    Nigerian Exchange gains 5.37% in Tinubu’s first week, highest for any President since return to Democracy

    The Nigerian Stock Market: Has Tinubu’s Election impacted the Market Negatively?

    The Nigerian Stock Market: Has Tinubu’s Election impacted the Market Negatively?

    Just in: Bandits attack President Buhari’s convoy in Katsina, two injured

    2015 vs 2023 Data: Nigeria situation went from bad to worse under Buhari

    Who is Hiba Abouk soon to be Achraf Hakimi’s ex-wife worth millions of dollars?

    Who is Hiba Abouk soon to be Achraf Hakimi’s ex-wife worth millions of dollars?

    LP won Obio-Akpor LGA Rivers State not APC as announced – INEC’s IReV

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Home Economy Economic Data

Domestic Economy: A Glimmer of Hope…as Surprise Growth in GDP Stimulates Economy out of Recession

Saturday, 20 February 2021, 6:52 am
in Economic Data, Economy
0
Fixed Income Market: Special Bills Drifts the Market in Search of Direction
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(Greenwich Merchant Bank): The Nigerian economy posted a better-than-expected recovery of 0.11% YoY in the fourth quarter, beating our expectation of a 1.86% contraction, after growth faltered by 3.62% and 6.10% in the second and third quarters, respectively. The modest growth can mainly be attributed to the pick-up in the non-oil sector, a result of easing lockdown restrictions, due to a slowdown in the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The oil sector, meanwhile, shrank by 19.76%. Though the recession was short-lived, GDP fell by its worst in over a decade to -1.92% YoY in FY:2020, following a growth of 2.27% YoY in FY:2019.

The oil sector reeled from the cut back in oil production volumes (output stood at 1.56mbpd as against 2.00mbpd in Q4:2019), and sub-par crude prices, which averaged USD45.26pb in the fourth quarter, compared to USD62.42pb in the corresponding quarter of 2019. This brought the sector’s contribution to an unimpressive 5.87ppts. All in all, the sector plunged by 8.89% by year-end, well below its growth in FY:2019 (4.59%).

  • Read: FY 2020: Nigerian Breweries Plc reports 54.3% decline in profit
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The non-oil sector was the main growth driver in Q4:2020, helped by the performance of the ICT (+12.90%) and Agriculture (+3.42%), as growth reached 1.69% YoY, better than the 2.51% contraction in Q3:2020, but lower than the 2.26% YoY growth in Q4:2019. Increased focus towards the Agriculture sector through the Anchors’ Borrowers Programme, along with other supportive measures yielded benefits for the sector, while the ICT sector reaped gains from increased demand for digital services underpinned, by the persistent restrictions on movement. On a yearly assessment, GDP shrank 1.25% YoY, compared to 2.06% in FY:2019, largely driven by weaker drops in the Manufacturing and Trade sectors, aided by pandemic-related issues, weak supply chains, and FX challenges. Altogether, seventeen (17) sectors edged up, against twenty-nine (29) sectors that registered losses.

 The Nigerian economy unexpectedly exited its recession quicker than envisaged, as this was backed by growth in the non-oil sector. We note that the Government had expected the country would return to growth by Q1:2021. For the full year 2021, we updated our GDP forecast to 1.70%, on the back of an expected rebound in the oil sector, a lower base effect, and a gradual return to normal operating conditions in the non-oil sector.

 For the oil sector, we reckon the tighter oil supplies and improved vaccinations are expected to continue to support oil prices up, which on February 17th hit its highest in over a year at USD64.34pb. The more stringent OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) regulation adds another layer of hope to the anticipated uptick in oil prices. We, acknowledge, however, that this could create room for temporary production swings from countries like Russia. In this regard, we maintain our stance that crude prices should average USD55pb-USD60pd by the end of the year.

The non-oil sector should be supported by the continued growth in the Agricultural sector, boosted by the funding availability created by the CBN, as the economy benefits from the tailwinds of easier monetary conditions. That, plus sustained growth in the ICT sector, alongside the implementation of the government’s Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP), and capital projects execution as noted in the 2021 budget at NGN3.9tn (29.4%). By contrast, FX pressures, heightened inflationary pressures, and rising security concerns continue to remain a medium-term growth drag.

In the equities market, we do not expect any significant deviation from its current performance, despite the surprising rebound posted in the fourth quarter. However, the dramatic rise in yields has investors on the hook and might just be setting the equities market up for a fall.

New offerings in the fixed income space have been accompanied by upward trending yields, and increased investor participation buttressed by robust system liquidity. While we note that this raises pressure on debt servicing costs, we bear in mind the recent fiscal plan that looks to upscale the Debt/GDP threshold to 40% from the previous 25%.

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